How long does it take for the real estate market to recover?

According to experts, the real estate market has gone through the most difficult time. However, when the Land Law, Housing Law and Real Estate Business Law begin to take effect from 2025, it will take time for the policy to absorb and it will take until 2026 for the market to be able to recover.

Mr. Hoang Hai, Director of the Department of Housing and Real Estate Market Management (Ministry of Construction) said that the real estate market has gone through the most difficult time. According to Mr. Hai, although the revised Law on Housing, Real Estate Business and Land Law will not take effect until January 1, 2025. Therefore, basically 2024 is a suitable momentum for the market to prosper when the law changes are officially applied.

The real estate market will wait 2-3 years to recover. Photo: Nhu Y

“The market has shown signs of brightening in the second half of 2023. Legal problems related to real estate have also been resolved by 70%. When the legal framework is complete and effective, the time to overcome difficulties will not be far away,” Mr. Hai said.

Ms. Pham Thi Mien, Deputy Head of the Market Research and Investment Promotion Consulting Department (Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association), said that 2024 will likely be the last year in the process of “overcoming obstacles” of the market. Real estate. The market will gradually become “stable”. The overall picture may change in a more positive direction. This will be the basis and foundation for the market to prepare for a new development cycle that is stable, sustainable and effective.

The reason given by Ms. Mien is positive signals from the business side. Through the purification process, the internal health, along with the ability to adapt to difficulties, the internal strength of businesses in the market is being improved. At the same time, the change in the new law has not yet been applied but will be a positive signal for subjects to convey their confidence and refresh their spirit for the preparation stage in the coming period. In parallel with solutions to remove legal difficulties, capital sources for the market, “confidence” of customers and investors is gradually returning.

Ms. Mien forecasts that in the first and second quarter of 2024, the market will continue to maintain good signals from the end of 2023. But it is not until the end of the third quarter onwards that recovery is clearly shown. Large-scale sales programs and massive media campaigns will take place more frequently and continuously this year. This is considered a drastic action, demonstrating the investors’ high determination to survive and their efforts to overcome difficulties.

In addition, mechanisms and policies, especially related to credit achieving penetration, will show more clearly the positive impacts on the market. The residential real estate segment, especially social housing and affordable commercial housing, will play a pivotal role, leading the entire market from mid-2024.

Other industries, directly affected by the real estate market such as construction materials and furniture production, are also gradually recovering but at a slow pace. Ms. Mien said that, although it cannot be confirmed that the market will achieve brilliant results in 2024, this year will be the “first brick” to build the foundation for a new development cycle of the real estate market.

“The market recovery process will have to take place for many years until the market is truly revived,” Ms. Mien said.

According to Tien Phong